前陣子一直看到講述蘋果電腦公司發展史的《蘋果之道》新書廣告，加上今年正好是蘋果50週年。藉此機會，久違的《Quartz關鍵字》專欄再度出刊，讓我們更認識這個現代不少人都離不開的蘋果吧！
企業史上最長壽的假資訊
1976年4月1日，蘋果（Apple）正式成立。沒錯，就是愚人節──這要嘛是宇宙在捉弄果粉，要嘛就是企業史上最精準的創立日期。因為人們一再宣告蘋果已死，然後一再發現……它根本沒死。
半個世紀過去，這家公司一路收集各式「死亡宣告」，卻總能撐過它們。那些曾信誓旦旦預測蘋果將走向終結的人，名單長得驚人，來頭也不小，卻始終錯得離譜：華爾街分析師、科技記者、比爾蓋茲（Bill Gates）（某種程度上）、甚至包括自家一任又一任的執行長，連1997年賈伯斯（Steve Jobs）重新接手蘋果後，他本人也曾說過蘋果「距離破產只剩90天」。
此後，蘋果反而成為史上第一家市值突破1兆美元、接著2兆、再到3兆的公司，打造出一種連真正的宗教團體都會羨慕的用戶忠誠度，甚至成為行為經濟學家認真研究的對象。
Hey Siri，蘋果「我已死」的傳聞下個章節主題會是什麼？大概就是它在AI時代踉蹌登場。但別太早下定論，因為押注它不會東山再起，至今從未成功過。
The longest running false alarm in corporate history
April 1, 1976: Apple is incorporated. It’s April Fool’s Day, of course — which is either the universe trolling fanboys or the most accurate founding date in corporate history. The joke is that everyone keeps falling for the same trick: declaring Apple dead, only to watch it… not be dead.
The company has now spent half a century accumulating obituaries and outlasting them, while the list of people who have confidently predicted Apple’s demise is long, tacky with top-shelf credentials, and yet still plain wrong. Think: Wall Street analysts, tech journalists, Bill Gates (sort of), and a succession of its own CEOs, including Jobs himself, who once said Apple was “90 days from bankruptcy” — a situation he inherited when, after some years in the wilderness, he regained the post in ‘97. Since then, Apple has become the first company to hit $1 trillion in market capitalization, then $2 trillion, then $3 trillion, manufacturing a level of customer devotion that actual cults envy and behavioral economists actually, definitely study.
Siri, what’s Apple’s next “rumors of my death” chapter? Probably the company’s stumbling entrance into the AI era. But don’t get too comfortable, because betting against the comeback has never worked yet.
| 數據看蘋果 By The Digits | |||||
| 0次 | |||||
| 儘管「快要破產」的傳聞不斷，蘋果實際都沒破產。 Times that Apple has filed for bankruptcy, despite the news repeatedly rumored to be imminent. | |||||
| 800美金 | |||||
| 1976年，因為擔心潛在債務，蘋果那位被遺忘的第三位共同創辦人韋恩（Ronald Wayne），將手中10%的股份賣回給賈伯斯和沃茲尼克（Steve Wozniak）時所拿到的金額。若持有至今，這筆股份的價值大約會是3000億美元。 就別再往傷口上撒鹽了。 Amount paid to Ronald Wayne, Apple’s forgotten third co-founder, when he sold his 10% stake back to Jobs and Wozniak in 1976, worried about potential debts. His share would be worth roughly $300 billion today. Let’s not rub it in. | |||||
| 90天 | |||||
| 根據賈伯斯的說法，1997年他重返蘋果時，公司距離破產只剩下的天數。為了應對這個局面，他將產品線從350項大幅縮減至10項、裁員數千人，並推出了iMac。 Number of days Apple was from bankruptcy when Jobs returned in 1997, according to him. In response, he cut the product line from 350 items to 10, laid off thousands, and launched the iMac. | |||||
| 12年 | |||||
| 在1985年那場董事會政變中被逐出蘋果後，賈伯斯離開公司的年數；之後蘋果以4.27億美元收購他創立的NeXT，他才重返公司。 Years that Jobs spent away from Apple after being ousted in a 1985 boardroom coup, before returning via Apple’s acquisition of his company, NeXT, for $427 million. | |||||
| 25億台 | |||||
| 目前全球活躍的蘋果裝置約略數量（依公司說法）——約等於地球上每三人就有一台。 Current approximate number of active Apple devices worldwide, per the company — or one for every three humans on Earth. |
被騙50次？也該怪自己了
當然，Apple在AI上的失誤是真實存在的。Siri也確實令人頭痛——這是Apple自找的：多年來不斷承諾打造「智慧助理」，結果卻交出一個連設鬧鐘都可能搞砸，還可能順便問你要不要打給你阿媽的系統；甚至還會在你和孩子對話時偷聽，插話說「好，我正在搜尋捕蠅拍」。至於Apple Intelligence，也經歷了一連串延宕與低調撤回。
市場當然也注意到了，畢竟市場一向如此。Apple近幾個月股價持續在52週高點之下震盪，分析師也不斷重複那些老問題：中國、iPhone換機疲乏、關稅影響、庫克是否具備願景/魅力，以及未來接班人是誰。
但即便如此，Apple手上仍握有約1500億美元現金與約當資產；全球有約25億台裝置在運行，形成一個使用者幾乎把它當成難以割捨的生活方式，而非產品線。它的服務業務——App Store、iCloud、Apple TV+、Apple Pay——成長速度甚至超過硬體本身。
最驚人的數字是什麼？大概是IPO以來的報酬率。看了會讓人想哭。
如果你在上市當天買進，當時股價是22美元——換算五次拆股後約0.10美元。如今約245美元，報酬率約244,900%。
所以說，笑到最後的，大概還是它。
Fool me 50 times? Shame on me
Sure, Apple’s AI stumble is real. And Siri is, genuinely, annoying — a headache Apple created for itself by spending years promising an intelligent assistant and instead delivering one that struggles to set a timer without offering to call your grandmother, and eavesdrops just as uselessly on your conversations, interrupting that thing you’re telling your kid by announcing “okay, I’m searching for flyswatters.” Apple Intelligence, meanwhile, suffered a rolling series of delays and quiet retreats.
The market has noticed, as markets do. Apple has spent recent months trading below its 52-week highs, and analysts have cycled through familiar concerns about China, iPhone upgrade fatigue, tariffs, whether Cook has the vision and/or the charisma, and who’s next in the chair.
And yet. Apple sits on some $150billion in cash and equivalents. It has 2.5 billion devices out in the world and an ecosystem its customers treat less like a product line than a lifestyle choice they’ll never give up. Its services business — App Store, iCloud, Apple TV+, Apple Pay — is growing faster than its hardware. Add to that how it has 50 years of practice at looking finished before it isn’t. Plus Pluribus.
The most impressive number of all? Probably the stock returns since the IPO. Read ’em and weep. If you bought the stock on the day it started trading, you’d have got in at $22 a share — or $0.10 on a split-adjusted basis, after five splits over the decades. Nowadays Apple trades around $245, for a return of approximately 244,900%. So, joke’s on us.
蘋果簡史
Brief History
1976年4月1日，賈伯斯、沃茲尼克、韋恩在加州賈伯斯家車庫簽署合作協議，共同成立蘋果電腦，雖然韋恩幾乎在一開始就退出。蘋果的第一個產品──Apple I是一塊極為簡陋的電路板，售價為666.66美元──據說只是因為沃茲尼克喜歡重複數字。
Steve Jobs, Steve Wozniak, and Ronald Wayne incorporate Apple Computer on April 1 in the Jobs family garage in Los Altos, California. Wayne exits almost immediately. The Apple I, a bare circuit board, retails for $666.66, apparently because Wozniak liked repeating digits.
1984
蘋果在超級盃播出由史考特（Ridley Scott）執導的廣告《1984》，用來介紹麥金塔。Mac一開始大獲成功，但後來在面對更便宜的個人電腦競爭時逐漸失去優勢，不過這支廣告至今仍被商學院與行銷課程當作經典案例研究。
Apple airs “1984," the Ridley Scott-directed Super Bowl ad introducing the Macintosh. The Mac is a hit, before losing ground to cheaper PCs, but the ad is still studied in college marketing classes.
1985
在CEO史考利（ John Sculley）的主導下，賈伯斯被逐出公司——而這位史考利其實是賈伯斯親自從百事可樂挖角來的，當時他問對方：「你想一輩子都賣含糖水嗎？」結果證明，答案某種程度上是。嗯，差不多就是。
Jobs is pushed out by CEO John Sculley, whom Jobs himself recruited from Pepsi by asking, “Do you want to sell sugared water for the rest of your life?” The answer, it turned out, is yeah, kind of.
1996
經歷多年失敗產品（如Newton、Pippin）後，蘋果收購了賈伯斯創立的NeXT，賈伯斯也隨之回歸公司。同時，微軟投資了1.5億美元。蘋果的轉型由此開始。
After years of failed products (the Newton, the Pippin), Apple acquires Jobs’ company NeXT. Jobs returns. Microsoft invests $150 million. The turnaround begins.
iPod問世。重點就在它不是一台電腦。
The iPod launches. It’s not a computer. That’s the point.
2007至今
賈伯斯發表iPhone，並將其描述為三種產品——「一台iPod、一支電話、一個網路通訊裝置」，但實際上是一體成型的單一裝置。iPhone後來成為史上最成功的消費性產品之一。
而就在發表後４年，賈伯斯辭世，由庫克（Tim Cook）接任執行長。他至今仍在任，而這家公司如今市值已接近4兆美元。
Jobs announces the iPhone, describing it as three products — “an iPod, a phone, and an internet communicator” — that are actually one. The iPhone has since become the most successful consumer product in history. Just four years after the launch, Jobs dies, and Tim Cook succeeds him. He’s still CEO, and now the company is worth nearly $4 trillion.
趣聞
蘋果的標誌——那顆被咬了一口的蘋果，由傑諾夫（Rob Janoff）於1977年設計，報酬為2000美元。傑諾夫曾表示，那一口缺角只是為了避免讓人把蘋果誤認為櫻桃。
長年以來也有一個流傳甚廣的說法，認為這個設計是向電腦先圖靈（Alan Turing）致意——他據傳因食用含氰化物的蘋果而離世。不過傑諾夫本人對此說法的回應是：這個故事很美，但並不是真的。
Fun Fact
The Apple logo — the one with a bite taken out — was designed by Rob Janoff in 1977 for $2,000. Janoff has said the bite was included so the apple wouldn’t be mistaken for a cherry. Longstanding rumors suggest that it references Alan Turing, the computing pioneer who died after eating a cyanide-laced apple. Janoff, for his part, has said that’s a lovely story but not true.
走進冷門小宇宙
一位收藏者成功蒐集到 iMac G3 全部13種顏色，這款在1990年代末到2000年代初販售的經典電腦，色彩從「邦迪藍（Bondi Blue）」到「橘色（Tangerine）」都有涵蓋。對不少人來說，這些機身顏色不只是設計，而是家庭電腦或宿舍房間裡的共同記憶。
Take Me Down This Rabbit Hole
A collector tracked down all 13 colors of the iMac G3 (sold in the late ‘90s through early 2000s), in shades from Bondi Blue to Tangerine, which some of us will remember as being the family computer and a dorm room staple.
Quartz關鍵字系列，翻譯自財經新媒體Quartz的電子報Quartz Obsession，讓人認識各種新鮮、流行的詞彙背後的故事。
更多Quartz關鍵字
Quartz關鍵字：有聲書 audiobook
Quartz關鍵字：小誌 Zines
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